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Tianhong Fund Liu Guojiang: Short-term Hong Kong dividends are empty, optimistic about big consumption leaders

On September 4, against the backdrop of overnight US stock market declines, the HSI closed up 3.9% to close at 26,523.23 points, up nearly a thousand points in the day, the largest single-day gain since November last year.

Liu Guojiang, Tianhong Hong Kong Stock Connect Select Fund Manager, was not surprised by the sudden outbreak of Hong Kong stocks. On September 3, he just strongly recommended investment opportunities for Hong Kong stocks during the company's internal roadshow. According to his analysis, regardless of the horizontal or vertical comparison, Hong Kong stocks are currently extremely undervalued. In the short to medium term, bearishness is basically exhausted and it is expected to usher in an oversold rebound. In the long run, both the medium and long-term earnings and valuation of Hong Kong stocks are expected to boost both.

Grinding a sword in nine years

In early April of this year, Tianhong's Hong Kong Stock Connect was selected for sale. This is also the brainchild of Liu Guojiang's nine years of Hong Kong stock investment research experience. In 2010, he started his Hong Kong stock research career as a researcher in the China Merchants Fund International Business Department. Since then, he has been focusing on Hong Kong stock investment and research, and once served as a private equity Hong Kong stock research director and investment manager. In April 2017, Liu Guojiang returned to the public offering and joined Tianhong Fund. After two years of incubation and polishing, its head coach, Tianhong Hongkong Stock Select, was officially established at the end of April this year.

Tianhong Stock Connect Select is a rare Hong Kong Stock Connect product on the market. It mainly invests in the Hong Kong stock market. The proportion of stocks invested in Hong Kong Stock Connect is not less than 80% of non-cash fund assets. As the first public offering of its Hong Kong Stock Connect, Tianhong Fund used 10 million yuan of inherent funds to purchase itself, and Liu Guojiang himself "invested in one's own pocket" for 1 million follow-up investments.

"To be frank, I spent 1 million to subscribe for the funds I managed, not for 'shows' or for product marketing, but really optimistic about the performance of Hong Kong stocks in the next three to five years." Liu Guojiang said. In his view, as China's economic reform and opening up progress in depth, the old kinetic energy will gradually give way to the new kinetic energy, and the new economy will generate a lot of investment opportunities. The Hong Kong stock market, as one of the main listing places for new economic enterprises in the Mainland, is expected to have significant implications. Cultivate a large number of outstanding enterprises.

Short-term negatives out, bullish on Hong Kong stocks' big consumption leader

In the eyes of colleagues around him, Liu Guojiang is a very regular and disciplined person. After the establishment of Tianhong Hong Kong Stock Connect, it coincided with the adjustment of Hong Kong stocks, but this did not disrupt the rhythm of Liu Guojiang's position construction. He still gradually increased his position in accordance with the planned route of position opening, and basically completed the position opening at the end of August, reaching the level stipulated in the contract.

However, the trend of Hong Kong stocks this year can be described as ups and downs. The first four months were basically in line with the pace of A shares and were in a shocking and climbing stage. After May, they began to adjust. After mid-June, the valuation was repaired, but after the end of July, the focus of valuation continued to move downward. In July and August, the cumulative decline was nearly 10%. On the whole, as of September 3, the Hang Seng Index has fallen by 1.23% this year. In contrast, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen more than 17% during the year.

Has the Hong Kong stock market fallen so badly? During the continuous adjustment period of the Hong Kong stock market, Liu Guojiang often asked himself such a question. "From a fundamental perspective, the proportion of profit contribution of Chinese stocks in the Hong Kong stock market is about 80%, and the profit growth rate is basically the same as that of A shares. In addition, from the perspective of risk-free rate of return, many countries around the world are cutting interest rates this year. The continued decline in US 10-year Treasury yields will increase the risk appetite of Hong Kong stock investors and make Hong Kong stocks' dividend yield more attractive. "Liu Guojiang believes that Hong Kong stocks underperformed A shares this year, more because of sentiment. Resulting in extreme overfall. At the beginning of August, when the Hong Kong stock market experienced a panic decline, he resolutely applied for the purchase of Tianhong Hong Kong Stock Connect.

On September 4, the Hong Kong stock market finally ushered in a long-lost surge. On the same day, the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng State-owned Enterprise Index rose 3.9% and 2.52% respectively. Liu Guojiang believes that the side of this rally reflects the deep suppression of Hong Kong stock valuations. In addition to the expected improvement in social events behind the surge, the core logic behind it is actually the return of extreme valuations to high-quality fundamentals.

He further stated that with the end of the Hong Kong Stocks Interim Report quarter in August, the current negative factors have been basically reflected in the stock price. In the future, whether it is corporate profits or risk-free returns, it will be in the direction of benefiting the stock market. This year and next, he is more optimistic about the big consumer leaders in Hong Kong stocks, especially the investment opportunities in private education, textile and apparel, food and beverage, and pharmaceutical leaders.

Holding group consumer stocks is also one of the main investment strategies of A-share institutional investors this year. However, unlike A shares, the holding effect of Hong Kong stocks is much weaker, and it has little effect on catching hot spots. "The Hong Kong stock market is dominated by institutional investors. It is more professional and rational. If you want to make money in the Hong Kong stock market, you must honestly and thoroughly study the company." Liu Guojiang added.

In-depth research

Focusing on the research of Hong Kong stock investment, the investment style is large-scale growth, and good at mining the main rising wave of white horse stocks. This is a brief summary of Liu Guojiang's own investment style. As a value investor, he is better at digging investment opportunities from the bottom up. In his opinion, the so-called value investment, in plain words, is actually seeing the value of a company, buying and holding, and growing with it. "I have been buying and holding stocks for three years. This means that I must be deeply tied to shareholders and stakeholders to grow with the company and earn money from the excellent to the excellent stage."

Liu Guojiang believes that the investment of Hong Kong stocks is very different from that of A shares in that the former is mainly an institutional investor, focusing more on fundamentals, and is more suitable for buying and holding investment strategies. He hopes that through in-depth research, selection of individual stocks, concentrated heavy positions and long-term investment strategies, investors will continue to obtain desirable returns.

According to its introduction, Tianhong International Business Department currently has a team of 7 people responsible for the investment and research of Hong Kong stocks, including 2 fund managers (including investment managers) and 5 researchers. At this stage, they mainly focus on the investment and research of Hong Kong stocks in the field of large consumption on. "Our research investment in a single stock can be said to be several times that of our peers, which guarantees the depth of our individual stock research." He hopes that through in-depth research on the fundamentals of individual stocks, he will get more alpha gains and turn Tianhong Hong Kong Stock Connect into his own brand fund.

Source: China Economic Net

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