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Tianhong Fund Chen Guoguang: The technology sector may usher in the layout window

Since September, A-shares have continued to improve, and technology stocks have performed particularly well. 5G, chips, semiconductors, software and other core categories have taken turns to rise and fall. As of September 16, the CSI TMT index has risen by more than 12%. As a flexible configuration fund focusing on the TMT (technology, media, communication) track, Tianhong Internet delivered a satisfactory performance answer sheet. According to Wind data, as of September 16, the fund has accumulated an increase of 10.69% since September, an increase of nearly 61% during the year, ranking among the top 1% of its kind, and an increase of more than 40% in the last three months.

Tianhong Internet mainly focuses on the four major sectors of electronics, communications, computers, and media. It is a "high-purity" TMT fund managed by Chen Guoguang, a senior fund manager with 17 years of investment research experience. Chen Guoguang once fully participated in the technology bull market from 2013 to 2014, and has continuously maintained in-depth tracking and research in the TMT field. He has been the Tianhong Internet Fund Manager since the end of February 2016. Wind data shows that as of September 16, the annualized return during his tenure was more than 7%.

Chen Guoguang believes that from the perspective of policy-driven, industrial development and sector valuation, the prospect of TMT investment is very worth looking forward to. In the past, the domestic economic development model relying on investment and demographic dividend has reached a bottleneck, and technological innovation will become an important starting point for China's economic transformation. From the perspective of industrial innovation, the technology industry is on the eve of the IT era. With the gradual landing of 5G, AI, IoT, SaaS, cloud computing and other technological innovations, a new technology cycle is gestating. In addition, from the perspective of valuation, the TMT sector has undergone more than four years of adjustment. The current overall valuation is about 38 times (as of September 9th, TTM), which is lower than 60% in history. Good layout window period.

According to Founder Securities' view, the current loose global liquidity environment is conducive to the interpretation of technology stocks, and domestic policies encourage innovation, and resources are gradually tilted towards the technology sector. More importantly, the comparative advantage of the performance of the technology sector is gradually being realized. The growth rate of TMT50 performance in the first half of the year reached 20%, which is much higher than the CSI 300 and small and medium-sized venture capital sectors. However, Founder Securities also said that the overall valuation of technology stocks has increased by about 60% this year, and there may be limited upside in the future. It will gradually enter the stage of performance-oriented follow-up, and it is necessary to select subdivided areas in which the business climate reverses or continues to improve.

In fact, Chen Guoguang also believes that there are many sub-sectors in the technology sector, with strong rotation effects between the sectors, and large differences in individual stocks. With the evolution of technology stocks, differentiation may be inevitable, so active investment is more conducive to obtaining excess income.

As a senior investor who has gone through multiple rounds of A-share bull and bear cycles, Chen Guoguang hopes to obtain excess returns through excess research, which is also the philosophy that his team has always adhered to. He used a stock in his portfolio as an example to explain in detail how his team implemented this concept in investment research. "This company focuses on a certain mobile phone component. In the past, it launched new products. At the beginning, the product price was very high, and the volume and price went up. However, as competitors flooded in, the product price will be quickly reduced. So everyone will As a strong-cycle, single-product company, it is unwilling to give high valuations. But at the beginning of this year, it launched a new product. After our detailed investigation and analysis, we felt that the barriers to new products were high and competitors were not easy to enter, so we started to build positions at the beginning of the year. Later, in April, it was reported that Taiwanese companies would also launch competing products. The company's stock suffered a major adjustment. We conducted a comprehensive survey of company executives, R & D, upstream suppliers, downstream customers, industry experts, and competitors. Later, it was determined that the company's performance will far exceed market expectations, and the release time of performance will be longer than market expectations. After it has achieved performance and profit guarantees this year, it has also made a lot of improvements in product layout, so we Firmly holding, the results prove that our decision is very correct, the company's stock price has risen more than 150% this year. "Chen Guoguang said.

"I take this example to say that only when the depth of research exceeds peers, can we obtain excess benefits, and can make decisive decisions when the market is hesitant," said Chen Guoguang.

In addition to the fund manager, Chen Guoguang also serves as the leader of the TMT group of Tianhong Fund. It is understood that in order to enhance the strength of the stock team, strengthen the professional division of labor and focus on the ability, Tianhong Fund began a major change in the management of the stock team from November last year, dividing investment research staff into TMT, consumer, pharmaceutical, manufacturing & cycle, etc. Multiple groups, and the interests of fund managers and researchers in the group are deeply bundled to guide fund managers to downplay uncertain timing and focus on more certain medium and long-term value investment logic. Chen Guoguang said that after this reform, his investment is more focused on the four TMT-related industries, and he is more concerned about medium and long-term investment opportunities.

For the future of technology stocks, Chen Guoguang is quite optimistic. He believes that the evolution logic of this round of technology stocks may be similar to the previous round, starting from hardware and then spreading to software, and can focus on the main investment lines such as 5G construction, domestic substitution, big data and 5G applications.
Source: Financial Investment News

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