Since this year, active equity funds have delivered an excellent report card. According to data from Galaxy Securities, active equity funds rose an average of 35% in the first three quarters of this year, significantly outperforming the market's major indexes, and their absolute and relative returns were very bright.
Surprisingly, in this rising wave of active equity funds, a group of emerging fund managers have emerged, and Tian Junwei's fund manager Tian Junwei is one of them. Wind data shows that as of October 29th, the Tianhong Cultural Emerging Industry Equity Fund he managed has achieved a cumulative return of 86% in the past year, ranking first among 338 ordinary equity funds of the same comparable type, exceeding the benchmark for performance comparison 65 percentage points.
In Tian Junwei's view, the key to achieving sustainable and stable excess returns is a reasonable investment method and investment system, and his investment system and method are mainly bottom-up stock options.
Excess income comes from stock selection
In the eyes of colleagues, Tian Junwei is an out-of-the-box workaholic and has an unusual paranoia about stock selection. Whether it is desk research, listed company research, expert interviews, grassroots research, every link that can deepen the company's understanding will not be missed.
"Getting excess income is nothing more than the following: first, the position is well selected, the second is the industry is selected well, and the third is the stock is selected well. For me, selecting individual stocks is the main investment method." Tian Junwei said.
How to select individual stocks? Tian Junwei explained: "First of all, you must choose a good company, but the criteria for a good company are diverse, or the company's industry is developing rapidly, or the company has a strong competitive advantage, and the management is better. I will give the company competition The indicator of advantage takes the largest weight. Taking the consumer industry as an example, I prefer companies with competitive advantages and barriers. For example, leading consumer goods companies have barriers of scale that are difficult to break, and leading companies have pricing power. High barriers mean companies Profitability is endogenous and sustainable. "
After selecting a stock, the valuation cannot be ignored. Tian Junwei believes that the ideal state is to buy a good company at a cheap price. "If a good company is in conflict with a good price, I would prefer to buy a good company at a reasonable or not too expensive price, because a good company can absorb the pressure of short-term valuation through continuous growth. I am cheap but not good Companies are more cautious and try to avoid value traps. In short, good companies and good prices are a comprehensive comparison process in my system, and the best investment portfolio is ultimately selected. "
Speaking of fundamental research, Tian Junwei said that desk research was the most time-consuming part of his daily work, followed by research. "After work, I prefer grassroots research. For example, when I go to the supermarket, I will look at the distribution and brand of the goods on the shelf, including whether the price tag is discounted. Passing the milk or food counter will also look at the production date of the product and calculate Turnover rate of shipments. In fact, every bit of life can provide some clues for investment. "
The data shows that from Tian Junwei's takeover of Tianhong Culture's emerging industries in August 2017 to October 29, 2019, the total return of the fund was close to 50%, exceeding the benchmark by nearly 49%, and the annualized return was more than 20%. Net worth curve.
Optimistic about the home appliance sector
Tian Junwei believes that at the current point in time, some high-valued stocks should no longer be the focus of chasing, and individual stocks should be selected from the perspective of cost performance. He hopes to be able to select some stocks with relatively low valuations and absolute room for return, and some high-quality home appliance companies have such characteristics.
According to the latest three quarterly data released by Tianhong Cultural Emerging Industry, among the top ten heavy warehouses, home appliance stocks account for half, and the proportion of positions held is close to 36%. The concentration of the top ten heavy stocks increased by 7 percentage points from the second quarter to 73%, demonstrating his confidence in his and his team's research capabilities.
Tian Junwei shared his views on the home appliance industry from a long, short and medium perspective. He believes that in the long run, household appliances have a high ROE, high dividends, and a very stable structure. Compared with overseas home appliance leaders, the PEG of A-share appliance leaders is significantly lower. Under the background of continuous inflow of foreign capital, the low valuation of the home appliance industry has a lot of room for repair in the long run.
From a medium-term perspective, he believes that home appliance demand usually lags the real estate cycle by about one and a half years. The last round of the real estate cycle bottomed in October 2017. Based on this calculation, there may be a wave of basic appliances in mid-2019 to early 2020 Face the bottom and pick up the market.
In the short term, in the fourth quarter of last year, the revenue and profit ends of major home appliance companies have made a big step relative to the previous period, and they are still in the low base range in the first two quarters of this year. On this basis, the key companies of home appliances in the next two or three single quarters have a stronger certainty of performance growth. Overlapping factors such as the completion of recovery expectations, the rebound of industry confidence and the gradual replenishment of the bottom-tier dealers, the key appliance companies have a high probability of subsequent performance reversals.
Before taking over the Tianhong Cultural Emerging Industry Fund, Tian Junwei has many years of TMT research experience. He hopes to bring his previous experience in growth stock research into the management and operation of the fund.
"We mainly invest in emerging consumer areas. There are many consumer funds in the market. We hope that this fund can have some of its own characteristics, that is, based on consumption, add some growth characteristics, that is, some areas of emerging consumption." Tian Junwei said .
Source: Shanghai Securities News