2019 is coming to an end, and the boom in investment in technology stocks is continuing. In this boom, an investment research team focused on the TMT field began to emerge. WIND data shows that, as of November 8, Tianhong Internet's revenue for the year was close to 61%, ranking among the top 4% (71/1815) of its kind, surpassing the performance comparison benchmark by 33%. The fund focuses on investment in TMT fields such as electronics, computer, communication, and media. Chen Guoguang, who has rich experience in investing in technology stocks, serves as the fund manager, and a team of 6 people from the TMT investment research team of Tianhong provide research support.
In addition to outstanding performance, Tianhong Internet's pure technology stock investment style has also begun to be recognized by the market. Recently, the reporter interviewed Chen Guoguang, the leader of the Tianhong TMT investment research team, the Tianhong Internet fund manager, Zhou Kaining, a senior researcher in the computer industry, and Tao Jin, a senior researcher in the electronics industry. How to use the power of organizational change and team to build a pure style TMT fund.
Industrial transformation period begins, technology stocks have promising prospects
The ancient Greek philosopher Heraclitus once said that people would not step into the same river twice. The same goes for investment. From 2013 to 2015, there was a rapid wave of technology stocks in the A-share market. The GEM index rose to more than 4,000 points, but then turned sharply and adjusted for more than three consecutive years. This year, the technology sector has returned to the rising channel. Compared with the previous round, how is this market quotation similar and how is it different?
Chen Guoguang, as an "old driver" of technology stock investment, has gone through the last round of technology stock bull market. "The same thing is that the main round of the previous market was the mobile Internet wave driven by 4G. Before 2013, it was mainly focused on electronics. In the later period, mobile Internet applications began to explode, and then spread to media, computers and other fields. This time the logic It's the same, starting with 5G construction, first pulling equipment suppliers and component suppliers, then driving the explosive growth of 5G mobile phones, and finally the application will explode in the Ming and the following years. The difference is that the last round of the market is more small The imagination brought by the company's extensional expansion to the market, but this time following the fundamentals, is more 'hard core' and healthier. "
Chen Guoguang said that 5G construction will start this year and is expected to reach its peak in 2021. The communications industry is expected to maintain an upward trend for 12 consecutive quarters starting from 2019, which is extremely rare in 28 A-share industries. "In terms of the industry cycle, electronics will bottom out in the fourth quarter, and computers will hit a cycle low in the second quarter of next year, which means that in 2020, it will face better industrial profits than this year."
"The development of 5G is divided into several stages. The first is the construction period of 5G. The data starts to burst in the later stages of construction, and the data-related industry chain benefits. After 5G is completed, the application will start, and then the Internet of Things will erupt." Chen Guoguang explained in detail, " As 5G matures, the application of smart cities and smart living will increase. 5G will eventually break through the connection between people and realize the connection between things. The mobile phone connection is only in the order of billions. Networked connections can be on the order of tens of billions. "
"From historical experience, every technological revolution will bring about changes in the market value of the entire market, and the industry will reshuffle. We are confident that after the completion of 5G construction, China is likely to have a new technology giant. Probabilities appear in the fields of cloud computing and artificial intelligence. "Chen Guoguang said.
Talking about investment opportunities in various segments of TMT, Chen Guoguang said that, from a fundamental point of view, the electronics industry generally lags behind the communications industry by 5 quarters, and the performance inflection point of the communications industry appears at the end of 2018. Inflection point.
As a member of Tianhong TMT team, Tao Jin has unearthed a number of promising electronic bull stocks this year. He explained in detail the two main investment lines of the electronics industry in the future. The first is the increase in the penetration rate of 5G mobile phones, which will drive the wave of smartphone replacements and increase the prosperity of the electronics industry. A number of electronic companies have emerged that can maintain a rapid growth of 2-4 years of performance. The second is domestic substitution, such as the chip industry. This main line may last for several years. "When investing in this area, we look at the product's near end on the one hand and the far end on the other. Comparing the development space of these companies in the domestic replacement, the larger the space, the better the future track. "
Zhou Kaining is mainly responsible for the research of the computer industry. He conducts more than 200 listed companies and industry surveys each year. He has profound and unique insights into the development of the technology industry and is the backbone of the Tianhong TMT team. He believes that the computer industry has three major investment opportunities in the basic layer and the application layer. In the basic layer, there are three main lines of traffic-related, domestic substitution and information security. In the application layer, they are mainly industrial Internet, institutional reform and enterprise-level services, and 5G applications. "5G applications are one of the main investment directions after the popularity of 5G, including intelligent driving, the Internet of Things, etc., but it is still early and needs to be tracked for some time."
"We are optimistic about the technology market in the coming years and the next year, and we are more confident to seize the main line and run better returns than the industry index." Chen Guoguang concluded.
Excess research creates excess returns and reduces portfolio volatility by multiple means
Technology stock investment has always been characterized by high growth and high volatility. As a pure TMT fund, how to control portfolio volatility has always been a major problem facing the TMT investment research team. Chen Guoguang hopes that on the basis of in-depth research and selection of individual stocks, by optimizing the position structure at the portfolio level, etc., it will reduce product fluctuations and obtain excess returns.
Chen Guoguang said: "Our team's investment philosophy is to create excess returns through excess research. How to conduct excess research? Taking core holdings as an example, we will select companies with high growth for 2-3 years and conduct 5-10 Comprehensive interviews and surveys covering company executives, R & D, upstream suppliers, downstream customers, industry experts, competitors. For stocks holding more than 5%, a survey is to be conducted in 1-2 weeks, and the team discusses collectively. Our goal is The research depth of heavy stocks has reached at least one-third of the buyer's level, keeping pace with first-rate fund companies. "
"In terms of stock selection, our goal is to find excellent companies through multiple dimensions, such as users, business models, and forms. As far as business models are concerned, platform or ecological companies are our first choice, and we will hold them for a long time. However, there are too few two types of companies in the entire technology sector, and they can only be second best, looking for companies with excellent products and explosive projects as much as possible. For project and product companies, the holding period will be shorter. "
How to reduce the volatility of technology investment and increase income at the same time, bring investors a stable and aggressive investment experience? Chen Guoguang said that in the past two years, in some subdivisions of the domestic technology sector, a number of outstanding companies have gradually accumulated. Increasing the allocation ratio of high-quality enterprises can significantly reduce product fluctuations, but the premise is that the investment period is preferably extended to 2 -3 years.
"According to our vision, in the asset allocation of Tianhong Internet, the proportion of leading white horse companies with stable performance and excellent governance will reach about 40 to 50%, and the leading companies in the cyclic segment segment will reach 30 to 40%. The matching of high growth and valuation will reduce volatility. The remaining 20% of positions will be allocated with a variety of products with clear performance inflection points and better flexibility to increase offensiveness. We strive to let investors enjoy smaller volatility To the era of growth in the technology industry. "Chen Guoguang said.
Artificial intelligence screens high-quality companies, researchers differentiate valuations
In addition to in-depth research and long-term investment, the Tianhong TMT investment research team also has a unique advantage, that is, the "black technology" of stock selection based on the research and development of big data and artificial intelligence. This is also the Tianhong Fund in the financial technology field. Discover the latest examples of results.
"Our team and the company's big data team have already started cooperation to screen outstanding companies through artificial intelligence. We have currently built three robot models: the first is a financial fundamentals model, which has 40 indicators, and the initial weights are set by researchers The second is a multi-dimensional evaluation model, which mainly involves indicators of corporate governance, such as the resume of the senior management team, the focus of the chairman, the level of company incentives, etc. The third is the reverse exclusion model. Once the investment logic appears For indicators that have a negative impact, we will use a third robot to reverse the exclusion. "Chen Guoguang introduced:" The difference between us and our peers may be that our quantitative artificial intelligence model is non-linear, can automatically learn, and continuously optimize indicators. For example, a variable is initially weighted at 10%, and the machine will slowly adjust to a weight of 15% through its own learning and cognitive iterations. We hope to use artificial intelligence to screen outstanding TMT companies, and add researcher valuation Understanding, picking out outstanding stocks. "
As for how to value technology stocks, Chen Guoguang believes that the first is scientific and the second is artistic. "If you only focus on science, you may miss many opportunities; if you pay too much attention to artistry, if you do n’t realize the benefits in time when the bubble bursts, you may take a" roller coaster. "
Chen Guoguang explained that compared with traditional industries, which establish barriers through brands and channels, technology investment is characterized by more significant growth. Often, a blue ocean market can be opened up through innovation, but changes in technology and process routes also create risks and uncertainty. It needs to carry out differentiated valuation.
"For companies with mature markets and low R & D investment, we will use the traditional PE valuation method; for industry companies that are already mature overseas and China is still in the early stages of the outbreak, we can give a certain valuation premium; for innovative companies It is necessary to restore R & D investment to profits, to see if the valuation is reasonable, and sometimes to divide corporate value by income. "He emphasized that special attention must be paid to the R & D and capital expenditure of technology stocks. The key factor.
The group reform has achieved results, because it is more professional due to focus
Taking a closer look at the reasons why Tianhong Internet has achieved good results this year, Chen Guoguang believes that in addition to in-depth research, selection of individual stocks, and advance layout, the company's organizational changes have also brought significant positive effects on fund operations.
It is understood that the Tianhong Fund's stock investment research team has implemented the "investment and research integration" reform since November last year, and implemented group management. It has set up four investment research groups: TMT, consumer, medicine, cycle & manufacturing, which aims to pass the benign The investment and research interaction mechanism and long-term evaluation system guide investment fund managers and researchers to focus on building core competence circles and based on in-depth research to create long-term and sustainable returns for customers.
"The company's investment research reform requires us to study the fundamentals of individual stocks more deeply, and product operations to be more 'pure'. Take Tianhong Internet as an example, focusing only on investments in TMT-related areas. The overall requirement is to dilute the relative ranking of short-term markets , Select stocks, pay attention to long-term excess returns, reduce turnover. Through this reform, the team members' mental outlook is new, and the research results in the group are very efficient. "Chen Guoguang said.
"After the reform, the researcher's assessment indicators and the fund manager's assessment indicators are basically the same, so the researcher has a high enthusiasm to translate the research results into investment performance. Now, if the researchers in our team have new value discovery, they will recommend it to the fund manager as soon as possible. "Said Chen Guoguang.
Source: Shanghai Securities News, Reporter: Chen Ye