This year's technology stock market leads the A-share market in the first three quarters, and the technology sector represented by 5G has a beautiful performance.
In this context, Tianhong Internet, an active management fund focusing on TMT investment, relies on its forward-looking layout and excellent stock selection ability, and currently returns close to 62% this year, ranking it among the top in its class. Tian Guo Internet Fund Manager Chen Guoguang said that the technology industry has become an important driver of China's economic transformation, and investment in technology stocks represented by TMT is facing opportunities of the times.
Stick to technology stocks
The last round of technology stocks peaked in June 2015, and the overall performance was bleak for more than three years. Taking the GEM where technology stocks are gathered as an example, the GEM index has fallen by nearly 60 from a high of more than 4,000 points in 2015. %, And many GEM concept stocks have gradually disappeared to only a few after the scene.
Recalling the last round of technology stock investment, Chen Guoguang admitted that although the funds he managed at the time had achieved good results, in the investment process, they mostly followed the main line of the market and obtained excess returns through position deviations and industry deviations. After the baptism of the last round of technology market, he now has a deeper understanding of investment in technology stocks, and is more confident to lay out the main line in advance.
Chen Guoguang said: "The technology sector has been adjusted for more than three years. At the beginning of this year, a wave of rebound followed the market. In the second quarter, due to some internal and external factors, there was a relatively large correction. This also gave technology funds a good time. "Our products have always adhered to the technology sector. We have selected stocks from the fundamentals and achieved significant excess returns in the second and third quarters. This year the market ’s investment logic in the technology sector has also begun to shift to performance-driven, more benign."
According to wind data, as of November 11th, the Tianhong Internet Fund in charge of Chen Guoguang has yielded 61.88% this year, 36 percentage points higher than the benchmark for the same period, ranking 61st among 1815 similar products, ranking the top 4%.
According to the data, Tianhong Internet Fund is an active management fund focusing on the concentration of TMT industry and related beneficiary industries. The investment in securities assets of TMT industry accounts for no less than 80%, and the product positioning is clear. The product fund manager Chen Guoguang is a "veteran" with 17 years of experience in the securities industry. He has been managing fund products since 2012. He has experienced the bull market of technology stocks from 2013 to 2015 and the subsequent downturn.
It is precisely because of the above investment experience that Chen Guoguang has a deeper understanding of technology stock investment. He frankly stated that, unlike traditional industries, which establish barriers to competition through brands and channels, the growth of technology companies is more obvious, and there are more opportunities to enter the blue ocean market. Sometimes, a new market can be opened up through innovation, but due to changes in technology and process routes, technology companies also face greater risks and uncertainties, and in the uncertainties, giant giants will emerge. It is also the unique charm of technology stock investment. In fact, Facebook, Google, Apple and other tech giants have grown up through disruptive innovation. He hopes that with his past investment experience in technology stocks and the team's in-depth research on the technology industry and enterprises, he will help holders to obtain excess returns from the technology sector in the form of long-term investment.
Difficult valuation issues for technology stocks
In the process of analyzing the industrial characteristics of technology stocks, Chen Guoguang revealed that compared with traditional industries, the biggest difference in investment in the technology sector is the understanding of valuation. In Chen Guoguang's view, the valuation of technology stocks needs to be both scientific and artistic.
Among the technology companies, there are more mature and innovative companies. Chen Guoguang believes that their valuation is also divided into three types: first, for companies with mature markets and low R & D investment, the traditional PE method is used; second, overseas Technology companies that have matured but are still in the early stages of an outbreak in China, such as semiconductors, will give a certain valuation premium from a longer period of development prospects. Third, for innovative companies, they will be based on EV / SALES (market sale rate), EV / (Profit + R & D) and other methods for valuation.
Chen Guoguang further stated that investment in science and technology stocks needs to be scientific and artistic. If you only focus on science, you may miss many opportunities. If you pay too much attention to artistry and fail to cash in when the bubble bursts, you may take a “roller coaster”.
Regarding his investment philosophy and framework, he said that one is to optimize the sub-sectors and "tracks", and to find excellent companies through multiple dimensions such as users, business models, and forms; and the second is to target different segments and technology companies. Differentiated valuation is carried out during the development stage; third, excess research is used to create excess value.
Chen Guoguang and his TMT investment research team believe that it is precisely because the investment in technology stocks is quite different from the investment in traditional industries, which also makes its growth more obvious and has more opportunities to enter the blue ocean market. In terms of industry selection, you can find sub-industries with pricing power, competitive advantage, and higher thresholds through industry upstream and downstream industry chain analysis and competition pattern analysis. Then, by comparing historical valuations, we screen out the leading companies in the growth or early maturity segments that have large growth space, high market value, and high liquidity.
In Chen Guoguang's view, deeply rooted industries and timely and in-depth tracking of individual stocks are necessary conditions for long-term returns. The goal of its research group is to reach the top 1/3 of the buyer's core stock research depth, and the team contributes 8-10 outstanding varieties each year as the core of the fund's performance contribution.
As we all know, as an active equity fund, in addition to earning beta returns, alpha returns are also very critical. How to obtain excess benefits has always been the focus of Chen Guoguang and his TMT team. Therefore, they determined the idea of creating excess value through excess research, and hoped to create excess returns for holders through in-depth research, selection of individual stocks, centralized positions, and benign rotation of investment strategies.
Chen Guoguang took core pool stocks as an example, and described the exploration of Tianhong's TMT team on in-depth research. "We set a goal to enter the core pool to do a full-angle interview with 5-10 people, covering company executives, R & D, upstream suppliers, downstream customers, industry experts, competitors, etc., while conducting high-density research, For stocks holding more than 5 points, information tracking should be done once every 1-2 weeks, and the team will discuss collectively. "
Behind such intensive research and discussion on the target company is one of the results of a series of investment research reforms carried out by Tianhong Fund this year. The reporter learned that the Tianhong Fund's stock investment research team has implemented the investment-research integration reform since November last year, dividing the investment research staff into four groups of TMT, medicine, consumption and cycle manufacturing, and clarified the investment research scope of each group To guide investment researchers to downgrade the relative ranking of the short-term market, select stocks based on fundamentals, focus on long-term excess returns, and reduce turnover. After the reform, the researcher's assessment indicators and the fund manager's assessment indicators are basically the same, which greatly improves the conversion effect of the research results in the group to the investment performance, and better eliminates the problem of fund style drift.
Chen Guoguang revealed that the TMT group currently consists of two fund managers and four researchers. "In the past, there were too many researchers connected with fund managers and it was difficult to achieve effective communication. Through this reform, the mental outlook of team members has been renewed, and the research results within the group have been transformed very efficiently. Now once our team of researchers has new value Discovery will be recommended to fund managers as soon as possible. "Chen Guoguang admitted.
AI helps investment research
As a Tianhong Fund with a strong Internet background, it will also use artificial intelligence to assist in the selection of targets and improve the efficiency of investment and research.
Tianhong TMT team and Tianhong University Data Center jointly developed three robot models to assist fund product investment research, including financial fundamentals model, multi-dimensional evaluation model, and reverse exclusion model.
Chen Guoguang introduced that one of the three robots is responsible for analyzing the fundamentals, including 40 indicators, and the initial weight is given by the researcher. The second robot is corporate governance indicators, such as executive biographies, chairman focus, and incentive levels. And once there is an indicator that has a negative impact on the investment logic, it will be reversed by the third robot. "Unlike ordinary companies, our artificial intelligence model is non-linear. The initial variables are artificially assigned and a random forest model is used, but in the process, the robot learns and adjusts itself. For example, at the beginning, a variable has a weight of 10%, and the machine Through his own knowledge, it will slowly adjust to a weight of 15%. "Chen Guoguang further revealed.
For investment in technology stocks, the aforementioned artificial intelligence screening did not involve valuation issues.
The three robot models mainly screen 800 companies in the TMT industry based on multi-dimensional, long-term sequence indicators. Through machine learning, neural networks, and other (supervised learning, unsupervised learning) models, they assist in research and selection of outstanding companies that are ignored by the market. .
However, Chen Guoguang said, "Because the valuation of the technology sector is unique, it is easy to miss out the best companies when they are all handed over to the machine. Therefore, we first screen out the best companies based on basic information, plus manual understanding of the valuation. Choose the best stocks. "
Investment mainline established
Chen Guoguang is optimistic about the fundamentals of some industries in the TMT field.
"5G construction starts from this year and peaks in 2021. The entire communications industry is expected to experience 12 consecutive quarters of performance growth. It is hard to find in 28 A-share industries, and it is not bad compared to the consumer industry." Chen Guoguang said.
In its view, the electronics industry cycle is expected to bottom out in the fourth quarter of this year, and the computer is expected to usher in a cycle low in the second quarter of next year. "That is to say, next year, we will face better industrial profits than this year."
Regarding the investment strategy for the coming year, Chen Guoguang believes that China is likely to gain a leading position in the 5G wave, and it is expected that new industry giants will emerge, and it is likely to come from areas such as cloud computing and artificial intelligence.
From a policy-driven perspective, Chen Guoguang analyzes that first, China ’s economic development model relying on investment and demographic dividends in the past has encountered a bottleneck, and it will shift to an innovation-driven development model in the future; second, it will “grow new momentum” this year and last year. As an important task and task of economic development, strong policies drive favorable industrial development. Third, the Sino-US trade friction also shows that science and technology are the only way to strengthen the country. At present, the science and technology innovation board and the Shenzhen pioneer demonstration zone have all risen to the national strategy and the prelude to science and technology investment. Opening.
In addition, Chen Guoguang also mentioned: "The new economy has a high probability in the field of cloud computing and artificial intelligence. Each technological revolution will bring about changes in the market value of the entire market, and the market will be reshuffled." I am very confident, and have reserved a batch of high-quality stocks in advance. I am confident that in this market, I will grasp the main line in advance and run better returns than industry indexes. "Chen Guoguang said.
Source: Economic Observer